Monthly Metal Review

Lead and Zinc (April 2019)

Global lead mine production of 838,000 tonnes in the January- February period was up by 5.1 percent compared with the same period in 2018, according to ILZSG. In the first two months of the year, mine output averaged 419,000 tonnes per month (tpm), up from averages of 388,000tpm in 2018, 392,000tpm in 2017, 391,000tpm in 2016 and 404,000 tpm in 2015, so a recover is underway. The apparent shift from deficit towards a supply surplus helps justify the pull back in three-month prices, which on the LME have fallen to $1,907 per tonne, down from an average in March of $2,071.48 per tonne. Prices are now back in the low ground that was seen in the fourth quarter last year, when lows ranged between $1,876 per tonne and $1,897.50 per tonne. The rise in LME lead stocks this year also supports the notion of a shift to a supply surplus, stocks were last at 75,000 tonnes, up from this year’s low of 66,925 tonnes, while SHFE lead stocks have climbed to 34,000 tonnes, up from a low of around 6,400 tonnes in October last year. Lead prices have been one of the weaker performers this year, with prices trending lower for the past two months, but we would expect any US/China trade deal to provide some relief to the auto industry and to lead demand. Global zinc mine output continued to decline in February, falling to 1.018 million tonnes, compared with 1.023 million tonnes in January. Indeed the January-February monthly average was 1.020 million tonnes, down from a monthly average of 1.068 million tonnes in 2018. Despite the fall in production, the latest data now shows the zinc market in a supply surplus of 63,000 tonnes in the January-February period, previously the data had put January in a 28,000 tonne deficit. The switch to a supply surplus and the expected production increases have pushed zinc treatment charges (TC) to multi-year highs with Korea Zinc and Teck Resources agreeing an annual TC of $245 per tonne, basis a metal price of $2,700 per tonne. The agreement has a 5% escalator over $3,000 per tonne and a 2% de-escalator below $2,700 per tonne. This TC is almost $100 per tonne above last year’s TC, which was $147 per tonne. The rise in the TC highlights the growth in mine capacity seen by the ramp up in Vedanta’s Gamsberg mine, MMG’s Duglad River mine and at New Century Resources’ New Century mine. In addition to the mines mentioned above, the next wave of new capacity include the 40,000 tpy Obruchevskoe mine, the 150,000 tpy Zhairem mine and the 165,000 tpy Shalkiya mine, all in Kazakhstan. The first two of these are expected to start in 2020, while the Shalkiya mine will be restarted this year as a phase 1 project, with phase 2 expanding the mine. While these three mines will add 355,000 tonnes of capacity over the 2019 to 2021 period, the ILZSG expects total global zinc mine production to rise by 980,000 tonnes over the same period.

Daily Prices

May 2019

Copper
Date(Fix.) ($/MT)
Average 6078.19
23-05-2019 5860
22-05-2019 5920
21-05-2019 6004
20-05-2019 5985
17-05-2019 6025
16-05-2019 6089
15-05-2019 6002
14-05-2019 6007
13-05-2019 6042.5
10-05-2019 6135.5
09-05-2019 6112
08-05-2019 6103
07-05-2019 6174
03-05-2019 6180
02-05-2019 6214
01-05-2019 6398
Silver
Date(Fix.) ($/OZ)
Average 14.68
23-05-2019 14.48
22-05-2019 14.435
21-05-2019 14.43
20-05-2019 14.415
17-05-2019 14.48
16-05-2019 14.795
15-05-2019 14.815
14-05-2019 14.755
13-05-2019 14.66
10-05-2019 14.795
09-05-2019 14.82
08-05-2019 14.93
07-05-2019 14.83
03-05-2019 14.655
02-05-2019 14.675
01-05-2019 14.88
PM MEAN AM Gold
Date(Fix.) ($/OZ)
Average 1282.74
23-05-2019 1275.95
22-05-2019 1274
21-05-2019 1276
20-05-2019 1275.25
17-05-2019 1285.8
16-05-2019 1295.55
15-05-2019 1298.9
14-05-2019 1297.6
13-05-2019 1282.95
10-05-2019 1285.4
09-05-2019 1284.1
08-05-2019 1287.75
07-05-2019 1281.3
03-05-2019 1270.05
02-05-2019 1271.45
01-05-2019 1281.8
Date(Fix.) ($/OZ)
Average 1283.37
23-05-2019 1279.8
22-05-2019 1273.9
21-05-2019 1273.575
20-05-2019 1276.05
17-05-2019 1283.3
16-05-2019 1293.625
15-05-2019 1299
14-05-2019 1298
13-05-2019 1289.275
10-05-2019 1286.25
09-05-2019 1285.1
08-05-2019 1286.475
07-05-2019 1281.25
03-05-2019 1274.3
02-05-2019 1271.2
01-05-2019 1282.8
Date(Fix.) ($/OZ)
Average 1284.00
23-05-2019 1283.65
22-05-2019 1273.8
21-05-2019 1271.15
20-05-2019 1276.85
17-05-2019 1280.8
16-05-2019 1291.7
15-05-2019 1299.1
14-05-2019 1298.4
13-05-2019 1295.6
10-05-2019 1287.1
09-05-2019 1286.1
08-05-2019 1285.2
07-05-2019 1281.2
03-05-2019 1278.55
02-05-2019 1270.95
01-05-2019 1283.8
Lead
Date(Fix.) ($/MT)
Average 1822.38
23-05-2019 1781
22-05-2019 1787
21-05-2019 1795.5
20-05-2019 1797
17-05-2019 1809
16-05-2019 1826
15-05-2019 1780
14-05-2019 1768
13-05-2019 1785
10-05-2019 1823
09-05-2019 1855
08-05-2019 1860
07-05-2019 1867
03-05-2019 1880
02-05-2019 1859
01-05-2019 1885.5
Zinc
Date(Fix.) ($/MT)
Average 2761.84
23-05-2019 2668
22-05-2019 2713
21-05-2019 2723
20-05-2019 2705
17-05-2019 2755
16-05-2019 2781
15-05-2019 2730
14-05-2019 2715
13-05-2019 2719.5
10-05-2019 2751
09-05-2019 2725
08-05-2019 2764
07-05-2019 2835
03-05-2019 2867
02-05-2019 2832
01-05-2019 2906
Tin
Date(Fix.) ($/MT)
Average 19651.25
23-05-2019 19720
22-05-2019 19650
21-05-2019 19750
20-05-2019 19675
17-05-2019 19625
16-05-2019 19675
15-05-2019 19850
14-05-2019 19890
13-05-2019 19465
10-05-2019 19650
09-05-2019 19475
08-05-2019 19640
07-05-2019 19660
03-05-2019 19375
02-05-2019 19550
01-05-2019 19770
Nickel
Date(Fix.) ($/MT)
Average 11969.69
23-05-2019 11870
22-05-2019 11965
21-05-2019 12030
20-05-2019 11915
17-05-2019 12025
16-05-2019 12215
15-05-2019 11930
14-05-2019 11820
13-05-2019 11730
10-05-2019 11865
09-05-2019 11710
08-05-2019 11965
07-05-2019 12050
03-05-2019 12170
02-05-2019 12125
01-05-2019 12130
Cobalt
Date(Fix.) ($/MT)
Average 34718.75
23-05-2019 34500
22-05-2019 34500
21-05-2019 34750
20-05-2019 34750
17-05-2019 34750
16-05-2019 34750
15-05-2019 34750
14-05-2019 34750
13-05-2019 34750
10-05-2019 34750
09-05-2019 34750
08-05-2019 34750
07-05-2019 34750
03-05-2019 34750
02-05-2019 34750
01-05-2019 34750