Monthly Metal Review

Overview

Lack of progress on US trade talks and further US rhetoric against Europe, especially aimed at the auto imports, have made for an uneasy market. A market in which businesses and some investors are trying to stay on the sidelines, with many now winding down for the year-end, while the more speculative elements of invest-ment spectrum are shorting the metals. For now the metals’ fundamentals generally remain strong, order books are robust and for many of the metals the fundamentals look set to tighten in 2019, but the uncertainty over trade is strong headwind and one that could get worse. The fact US mid-term elections saw the Democrats regain control of the House of Representatives will have weakened President Donald Trump as the House will now be able to re-store checks and balances on his administration, but it is unlikely to have much impact on US trade policy as the President has executive power in that area. The trade disputes have dragged on for so long that the market seems numb to the news-flow, but while metal prices are either rangebound or declining, the tenden-cy has been for users to destock, or to live hand-to-mouth with low stocks. Should the trade situation suddenly improve, given President Donald Trump’s preference to announce policy via Twitter, then there is a risk that the already oversold metals mar-kets could suddenly be caught off guard and with too low a level of stocks, and in some cases with short positions. That may be a risk the metals market is happy to take as if the risk unfolds then it would lead to more buoyant times ahead. If no trade agreement is struck soon, then the prospects of even broader and more penalizing tariffs against China and other trade partners could make for a considerably more bearish economic climate for the markets, one which could trigger another round of risk off. To some extent, the already downtrodden metals prices may have discounted a further deterioration in trade relations, but equities could still correct further and that could lead to another broad-based sell-off. The European Commission reported that economic sentiment dropped in the Eurozone for the tenth consecutive month in October. US Q3 GDP held steady at 3.5%, which was below the 3.6% the market expected. Novem-ber’s Flash Purchasing Managers Manufacturing data for Japan (51.8), EU (51.5) and US (55.4), all declined, with only the US reading being a safe distance from the 50 level that distinguishes economic expansion from contraction. This supports the OECD economic outlook that says the global economy is slowing, albeit remaining strong “Global economic growth remains strong but has passed its recent peak and faces escalating risks including rising trade tensions and tightening financial conditions”. With Qatar declaring its intentions to part its ways with the OPEC, it will be interesting to see how these geopolitical issues shape the markets in future. There may not be a short term impact as Qatar contributes to only 2% of OPEC production. On the other side, Russia joining hands with OPEC to cut its oil production will lead to a stall in the falling crude prices. US treasuries 10-year yields have settled around the 3.06% level, down from 3.20% earlier in the year, despite this, the US dollar remains strong with the dollar index at 97.35, just shy of the November 12 peak at 97.70. While the diverging monetary policy paths between the US and Europe/ Japan favour a strong-er dollar, any escalation in US trade wars could start to be a drag on the US economy and that in turn might prompt the FOMC to become more dovish for a while, thereby leading to a pullback in the dollar. That said, the counter argument is that higher import prices into the US, due to tariffs, could mean a pick-up in infla-tionary pressures that would keep the FOMC hawkish. That said, the sharp drop in oil prices to $60 per barrel, from $86 in early October will have taken some of the heat out of inflation sending ripples through the global economy, lending more spending power to consumers — particularly for Americans’ big holiday shopping spree — but potentially dampening investment in US oil production. In a positive development, the LME said it will extend a trial of electronic closing prices instead of open outcry for nickel to other metals. The LME will begin a three-month trial with the benchmark three-month nickel contract in February and extend it for other metals if the program is successful. We hope this will add to the metal’s tradability in future.

Daily Prices

November 2018

Copper
Date(Fix.) ($/MT)
Average 6193.00
30-11-2018 6238
29-11-2018 6282
28-11-2018 6198
27-11-2018 6169.5
26-11-2018 6246
23-11-2018 6210
22-11-2018 6246
21-11-2018 6242
20-11-2018 6262
19-11-2018 6260
16-11-2018 6181
15-11-2018 6188
14-11-2018 6106
13-11-2018 6130
12-11-2018 6083.5
09-11-2018 6088
08-11-2018 6137
07-11-2018 6210
06-11-2018 6205
05-11-2018 6239
02-11-2018 6255
01-11-2018 6070
Silver
Date(Fix.) ($/OZ)
Average 14.37
30-11-2018 14.235
29-11-2018 14.265
28-11-2018 14.15
27-11-2018 14.275
26-11-2018 14.38
23-11-2018 14.255
22-11-2018 14.52
21-11-2018 14.42
20-11-2018 14.44
19-11-2018 14.36
16-11-2018 14.285
15-11-2018 14.13
14-11-2018 13.97
13-11-2018 14.02
12-11-2018 14.16
09-11-2018 14.34
08-11-2018 14.49
07-11-2018 14.67
06-11-2018 14.7
05-11-2018 14.735
02-11-2018 14.82
01-11-2018 14.45
PM MEAN AM Gold
Date(Fix.) ($/OZ)
Average 1221.28
30-11-2018 1220.45
29-11-2018 1226.45
28-11-2018 1213.2
27-11-2018 1225.05
26-11-2018 1226.65
23-11-2018 1222.15
22-11-2018 1228.25
21-11-2018 1224
20-11-2018 1223.1
19-11-2018 1223.55
16-11-2018 1215.8
15-11-2018 1210.6
14-11-2018 1201.45
13-11-2018 1197.55
12-11-2018 1207.05
09-11-2018 1219.05
08-11-2018 1223.45
07-11-2018 1235.05
06-11-2018 1234.85
05-11-2018 1231.6
02-11-2018 1235.5
01-11-2018 1223.25
Date(Fix.) ($/OZ)
Average 1221.11
30-11-2018 1219
29-11-2018 1226.35
28-11-2018 1213.225
27-11-2018 1223.125
26-11-2018 1225.025
23-11-2018 1222.9
22-11-2018 1227.65
21-11-2018 1225.05
20-11-2018 1223.05
19-11-2018 1222.575
16-11-2018 1219.1
15-11-2018 1211.225
14-11-2018 1202.35
13-11-2018 1199.825
12-11-2018 1206.3
09-11-2018 1215.225
08-11-2018 1223.8
07-11-2018 1232.5
06-11-2018 1233.225
05-11-2018 1231.925
02-11-2018 1233.8
01-11-2018 1227.2
Date(Fix.) ($/OZ)
Average 1220.95
30-11-2018 1217.55
29-11-2018 1226.25
28-11-2018 1213.25
27-11-2018 1221.2
26-11-2018 1223.4
23-11-2018 1223.65
22-11-2018 1227.05
21-11-2018 1226.1
20-11-2018 1223
19-11-2018 1221.6
16-11-2018 1222.4
15-11-2018 1211.85
14-11-2018 1203.25
13-11-2018 1202.1
12-11-2018 1205.55
09-11-2018 1211.4
08-11-2018 1224.15
07-11-2018 1229.95
06-11-2018 1231.6
05-11-2018 1232.25
02-11-2018 1232.1
01-11-2018 1231.15
Lead
Date(Fix.) ($/MT)
Average 1940.16
30-11-2018 1956.5
29-11-2018 1932.5
28-11-2018 1907
27-11-2018 1906
26-11-2018 1918.5
23-11-2018 1936
22-11-2018 1974
21-11-2018 1949
20-11-2018 1970
19-11-2018 2005
16-11-2018 1960
15-11-2018 1943
14-11-2018 1918.5
13-11-2018 1908
12-11-2018 1910
09-11-2018 1957
08-11-2018 1947
07-11-2018 1899
06-11-2018 1910
05-11-2018 1948.5
02-11-2018 1995
01-11-2018 1933
Zinc
Date(Fix.) ($/MT)
Average 2592.86
30-11-2018 2628.5
29-11-2018 2553
28-11-2018 2515
27-11-2018 2506
26-11-2018 2560
23-11-2018 2630.5
22-11-2018 2658
21-11-2018 2670
20-11-2018 2698
19-11-2018 2691
16-11-2018 2641
15-11-2018 2655
14-11-2018 2542
13-11-2018 2587
12-11-2018 2548
09-11-2018 2556
08-11-2018 2521.5
07-11-2018 2522
06-11-2018 2572
05-11-2018 2550
02-11-2018 2653.5
01-11-2018 2585
Tin
Date(Fix.) ($/MT)
Average 19139.32
30-11-2018 18525
29-11-2018 18580
28-11-2018 18425
27-11-2018 18750
26-11-2018 18755
23-11-2018 19125
22-11-2018 19475
21-11-2018 19500
20-11-2018 19600
19-11-2018 19460
16-11-2018 19450
15-11-2018 19475
14-11-2018 19345
13-11-2018 19300
12-11-2018 19330
09-11-2018 19310
08-11-2018 19200
07-11-2018 19050
06-11-2018 19050
05-11-2018 19080
02-11-2018 19175
01-11-2018 19105
Nickel
Date(Fix.) ($/MT)
Average 11253.41
30-11-2018 11020
29-11-2018 10890
28-11-2018 10735
27-11-2018 10710
26-11-2018 10770
23-11-2018 10710
22-11-2018 10970
21-11-2018 11085
20-11-2018 11190
19-11-2018 11200
16-11-2018 11280
15-11-2018 11340
14-11-2018 11225
13-11-2018 11370
12-11-2018 11290
09-11-2018 11470
08-11-2018 11615
07-11-2018 11670
06-11-2018 11820
05-11-2018 11680
02-11-2018 11980
01-11-2018 11555
Cobalt
Date(Fix.) ($/MT)
Average 53261.36
30-11-2018 55250
29-11-2018 55250
28-11-2018 55250
27-11-2018 55250
26-11-2018 55250
23-11-2018 55250
22-11-2018 55250
21-11-2018 55250
20-11-2018 55250
19-11-2018 55250
16-11-2018 55000
15-11-2018 55000
14-11-2018 55000
13-11-2018 51000
12-11-2018 50250
09-11-2018 51000
08-11-2018 54500
07-11-2018 52500
06-11-2018 50500
05-11-2018 46750
02-11-2018 45000
01-11-2018 52750