Monthly Metal Review

Overview

As the US prepares itself for its mid-term election that should set the tone of Trump’s policies during rest of his tenure, the geo-political uncertainties continue to reign over the world economy. Brent crude oil prices at $86 per barrel due to sanctions against Iran and the falling levels of US treasury and German bund yields are contributing to bearish sentiments all across the globe, especially in developing countries. In addition, the reaction of major world powers against killing of a Saudi journalist, US-China trade war and the almost paralyzed pace of Brexit negotiations have added further confusion to the state of global economic recovery. Despite all the potential issues, as mentioned above, we should remind ourselves that the global economy is still growing, the commodity markets’ fundamentals remain generally strong and look set to tighten in 2019. We started off this year expecting just a pause in the 2016-2017 rally, but the pause has dragged on. The main change has been the prolonged trade dispute, if common sense prevails and new agreements are reached then confidence could soon return to the commodities. One area of cheer is that China has taken some steps to relieve credit tightness that the private sector is suffering – as this is one of the reasons we often hear as to why businesses activity in China is sluggish, this could be a constructive step in the right direction. The US unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since De-cember 1969 to 3.7%. Various sections of economists are predict-ing a further decline in the joblessness rate in next 12 months, thereby strengthening the possibility that the US Federal Reserve will keep raising the interest rates as more number of US workers increase their spending. According to a recent data from the US department of Labor, manufacturing jobs continued to increase in September despite increase in cost of imported raw materials in the US due to trade war with China. Thus the escalation in trade war seems to have no effect on the US economy as far as hiring num-bers are concerned. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reduced its outlook on the global economy to a 3.7% growth rate or this year and the next, down 0.2% from its earlier forecast in July. The fund expects US economy to grow at the rate of 2.9% this year but expects a decline to 2.5% in the next year due to escalating trade war with China. With the US economy growing stronger and other advanced economies doing better than their long-term sustainable rates, the short term attention of economists is shifting towards emerging economies. According to IMF, most of the developing world is currently facing an increase in burden of foreign currency denominat-ed debt. China’s policymakers are still wondering if they accept the weaker outlook against the trade war or stimulate credit growth by risking an increase in debt level which is already alarming. However, an analysis by Bloomberg suggested that China will still be the top contributor to global GDP growth by a large margin in the near term. China's share of global GDP growth is expected to rise from 27.2 per cent to 28.4 per cent by 2023. Meanwhile, India's share of global GDP growth is expected to rise from 13 per cent to almost 16 per cent -- a jump of three percentage points. In the fourth spot will be Indonesia with an expected 3.7 per cent share in 2023. The top five will be rounded out by Brazil. IMF kept its forecast for growth in the Chinese economy un-changed at 6.6% this year but cut down its next year forecast to 6.2% next year. This was estimated assuming status quo in the intentions of President Trump. However, we are also hearing counter arguments from some quarters that Trump administration may be less inclined to escalate the trade war with same intensity if US companies show signs of stress, which some are starting to do. The Dow Jones In-dustrial Average at 24,860, is close to where it started the year, 24,824, and having been as high as 26,951.81, has already fallen 7.8% from its high. What is more, as many of Trump’s policies are set to hurt US companies, he may well have to do some ‘U’-turns.

Daily Prices

October 2018

Copper
Date(Fix.) ($/MT)
Average 6215.89
31-10-2018 6073
30-10-2018 6136
29-10-2018 6260
26-10-2018 6159
25-10-2018 6210
24-10-2018 6215
23-10-2018 6167.5
22-10-2018 6284
19-10-2018 6191.5
18-10-2018 6147
17-10-2018 6249
16-10-2018 6202
15-10-2018 6296
12-10-2018 6325
11-10-2018 6155
10-10-2018 6294
09-10-2018 6219
08-10-2018 6169
05-10-2018 6182.5
04-10-2018 6310
03-10-2018 6275
02-10-2018 6274
01-10-2018 6172
Silver
Date(Fix.) ($/OZ)
Average 14.58
31-10-2018 14.34
30-10-2018 14.425
29-10-2018 14.65
26-10-2018 14.69
25-10-2018 14.74
24-10-2018 14.745
23-10-2018 14.715
22-10-2018 14.63
19-10-2018 14.61
18-10-2018 14.515
17-10-2018 14.65
16-10-2018 14.755
15-10-2018 14.74
12-10-2018 14.6
11-10-2018 14.4
10-10-2018 14.375
09-10-2018 14.325
08-10-2018 14.465
05-10-2018 14.635
04-10-2018 14.63
03-10-2018 14.735
02-10-2018 14.505
01-10-2018 14.55
PM MEAN AM Gold
Date(Fix.) ($/OZ)
Average 1214.73
31-10-2018 1217.7
30-10-2018 1220
29-10-2018 1230.75
26-10-2018 1236.05
25-10-2018 1232.15
24-10-2018 1231.65
23-10-2018 1235.6
22-10-2018 1222.9
19-10-2018 1228.25
18-10-2018 1224.6
17-10-2018 1226.75
16-10-2018 1228.85
15-10-2018 1233
12-10-2018 1218.75
11-10-2018 1201.1
10-10-2018 1186.4
09-10-2018 1187.4
08-10-2018 1194.8
05-10-2018 1201.1
04-10-2018 1199.45
03-10-2018 1203.5
02-10-2018 1192.65
01-10-2018 1185.3
Date(Fix.) ($/OZ)
Average 1215.06
31-10-2018 1216.325
30-10-2018 1222.7
29-10-2018 1230.775
26-10-2018 1234.95
25-10-2018 1231.475
24-10-2018 1231.1
23-10-2018 1235.775
22-10-2018 1222.6
19-10-2018 1228.05
18-10-2018 1223.8
17-10-2018 1227.9
16-10-2018 1229.775
15-10-2018 1231.475
12-10-2018 1219.25
11-10-2018 1203.325
10-10-2018 1187.5
09-10-2018 1186.475
08-10-2018 1190.875
05-10-2018 1202.45
04-10-2018 1201.45
03-10-2018 1202.35
02-10-2018 1198.675
01-10-2018 1187.325
Date(Fix.) ($/OZ)
Average 1215.39
31-10-2018 1214.95
30-10-2018 1225.4
29-10-2018 1230.8
26-10-2018 1233.85
25-10-2018 1230.8
24-10-2018 1230.55
23-10-2018 1235.95
22-10-2018 1222.3
19-10-2018 1227.85
18-10-2018 1223
17-10-2018 1229.05
16-10-2018 1230.7
15-10-2018 1229.95
12-10-2018 1219.75
11-10-2018 1205.55
10-10-2018 1188.6
09-10-2018 1185.55
08-10-2018 1186.95
05-10-2018 1203.8
04-10-2018 1203.45
03-10-2018 1201.2
02-10-2018 1204.7
01-10-2018 1189.35
Lead
Date(Fix.) ($/MT)
Average 1985.15
31-10-2018 1867
30-10-2018 1916
29-10-2018 1971.5
26-10-2018 1982
25-10-2018 1988
24-10-2018 2003.5
23-10-2018 1995
22-10-2018 1997
19-10-2018 1966
18-10-2018 1992
17-10-2018 2013
16-10-2018 2079
15-10-2018 2091
12-10-2018 2037
11-10-2018 1909
10-10-2018 1915
09-10-2018 1934
08-10-2018 1981
05-10-2018 1971
04-10-2018 2020
03-10-2018 2020.5
02-10-2018 2001
01-10-2018 2009
Zinc
Date(Fix.) ($/MT)
Average 2671.87
31-10-2018 2590
30-10-2018 2649
29-10-2018 2695
26-10-2018 2686
25-10-2018 2704
24-10-2018 2740
23-10-2018 2698
22-10-2018 2724
19-10-2018 2696
18-10-2018 2687
17-10-2018 2653
16-10-2018 2630
15-10-2018 2662
12-10-2018 2677
11-10-2018 2638
10-10-2018 2697.5
09-10-2018 2691.5
08-10-2018 2649
05-10-2018 2645
04-10-2018 2696
03-10-2018 2633
02-10-2018 2693
01-10-2018 2619
Tin
Date(Fix.) ($/MT)
Average 19129.13
31-10-2018 19150
30-10-2018 19085
29-10-2018 19250
26-10-2018 19350
25-10-2018 19375
24-10-2018 19435
23-10-2018 19425
22-10-2018 19250
19-10-2018 19160
18-10-2018 19175
17-10-2018 19300
16-10-2018 19175
15-10-2018 19100
12-10-2018 19050
11-10-2018 18975
10-10-2018 19010
09-10-2018 18975
08-10-2018 18985
05-10-2018 18950
04-10-2018 19000
03-10-2018 18920
02-10-2018 18925
01-10-2018 18950
Nickel
Date(Fix.) ($/MT)
Average 12327.17
31-10-2018 11625
30-10-2018 11700
29-10-2018 11725
26-10-2018 11835
25-10-2018 12135
24-10-2018 12295
23-10-2018 12330
22-10-2018 12455
19-10-2018 12470
18-10-2018 12140
17-10-2018 12440
16-10-2018 12450
15-10-2018 12650
12-10-2018 12710
11-10-2018 12420
10-10-2018 12775
09-10-2018 12660
08-10-2018 12395
05-10-2018 12400
04-10-2018 12770
03-10-2018 12400
02-10-2018 12420
01-10-2018 12325
Cobalt
Date(Fix.) ($/MT)
Average 59109.13
31-10-2018 55000
30-10-2018 60000
29-10-2018 60000
26-10-2018 60750
25-10-2018 60750
24-10-2018 60750
23-10-2018 60750
22-10-2018 60750
19-10-2018 60750
18-10-2018 58000
17-10-2018 62500
16-10-2018 62500
15-10-2018 62500
12-10-2018 62500
11-10-2018 58010
10-10-2018 58000
09-10-2018 57000
08-10-2018 55500
05-10-2018 57000
04-10-2018 55500
03-10-2018 55000
02-10-2018 58000
01-10-2018 58000