Monthly Metal Review

Overview

The main focus entrapping global business and investment senti-ment is the continuing US trade dispute with China, the latest escalation being the 10% tariff on an extra $200 billion of Chinese imports, which may rise to 25% in the New Year, should China retaliate. China’s response so far was for tariffs on $60 billion worth of US goods and a statement that it would not join trade talks unless the US stops threatening to increase tariffs. This sug-gests the trade dispute will grind on, although President Donald Trump, while wanting to look tough in the run up to the mid-term elections, may try to pull a deal out of the bag just before the elec-tion. Away from the trade disputes, but not disconnected, the situation in the financial markets is quite diverse, with the US econ-omy appearing to be racing forward as equity markets set fresh records, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 8% year-to-date, and consumer confidence and manufacturing activity are at multi-year highs. US GDP was running at an annualized rate of 4.2% in the second quarter, which is the fastest pace for four years. Economic growth in emerging markets is near a seven-month low and confidence in Europe is in the doldrums, with Italy’s finances once again a threat to EU financial stability and all the uncertainty surrounding Brexit. US treasury markets are also relatively buoyant despite the rising yields and the divergence between US interest rates and those in the other major economies. US ten-year treasury yields were recently as highs as 3.1%, while German ten-year bunds yield 0.53%. A diversified group of emerging market economies have started to suffer country-specific crises, whether political or finan-cial, and whether triggered by higher US interest rates, poor gov-ernance or the threat of sanctions and trade tariffs. The countries currently in focus are Turkey, Argentina, Iran, South Africa, Russia, Brazil and even Italy, but while these countries’ issues may have started in isolation, they are now being seen as more connected, which raises the risk of contagion and an emerging market crisis. Higher oil prices, with Brent crude prices reaching $82 per barrel, brought about by the US stance on sanctions against Iran and Opec’s reluctance to raise output in a hurry, are also headwinds for non-oil producing economies. Whether the diverging paths within the global economy prompt central bankers and politicians to change tack or run the risk of causing another global financial crisis, remains to be seen. Ironically, even President Donald Trump sees the rising US interest rate policy and stronger dollar as undermining America’s competitive advantage. With metals prices having already retreated since June, but hav-ing spent recent weeks building bases, and with the physical market still showing strength and the metals’ fundamentals generally tighten-ing, as seen by rising premiums, stock falls and the emergence of some backwardations in the spreads – it may be that the metals are now looking for an excuse to rally. A weaker dollar may well be the trigger for that. With the funds’ short positions at an extreme, any sustained price rally would likely prompt short-covering and lead to some fast upside corrections. Any progress on trade talks, or further stimulus measures by China, which are widely expected, could lead to a similar result. The headline German Ifo business climate climbed to 103.7 in September, marginally weaker than August’s 103.8 but surpassing market expectations. Germany’s dependence on exports and its sig-nificant trade surplus expose the country to global trade frictions. Souring sentiment in Europe’s largest economy supports ECB Presi-dent Mario Draghi’s claim that protectionism, emerging-market vola-tility and financial turmoil risk weighing down growth. Still, the Bundesbank said the German economy can cope thanks to strong domestic demand. U.S. Jobs and wages moved higher in August, a government report said. But the largely positive Labor Department report hinted that trade-war tariffs could be starting to take a toll on manufacturing jobs. Gold prices fell modestly following a U.S. jobs report that slightly topped market expectations. August non-farm payrolls rose by 201,000. The overall unemployment rate was 3.9 percent from 3.8 in July. Still, U.S. wages, which had been lagging, ticked up more than expected in August whilst hiring also rose. South Africa slipped into recession in the second quarter, the first in almost a decade. Moody’s rating service said 2018 economic growth would be no greater than 1 percent. But it said there is little chance the debt-burdened nation’s credit rating would be downgrad-ed at an October review meeting, given Moody’s stable outlook on the nation. Still, Moody’s warned that a commitment to fiscal con-solidation would be vital to maintaining its rating.

Daily Prices

September 2018

Copper
Date(Fix.) ($/MT)
Average 6020.03
28-09-2018 6180
27-09-2018 6222
26-09-2018 6257.5
25-09-2018 6276
24-09-2018 6320
21-09-2018 6203
20-09-2018 6057
19-09-2018 6057
18-09-2018 6003
17-09-2018 5860
14-09-2018 5946.5
13-09-2018 5991
12-09-2018 5891
11-09-2018 5849
10-09-2018 5840.5
07-09-2018 5883
06-09-2018 5940
05-09-2018 5850
04-09-2018 5823
03-09-2018 5951
Silver
Date(Fix.) ($/OZ)
Average 14.26
28-09-2018 14.305
27-09-2018 14.42
26-09-2018 14.475
25-09-2018 14.29
24-09-2018 14.315
21-09-2018 14.33
20-09-2018 14.23
19-09-2018 14.185
18-09-2018 14.21
17-09-2018 14.17
14-09-2018 14.215
13-09-2018 14.225
12-09-2018 14.155
11-09-2018 14.125
10-09-2018 14.215
07-09-2018 14.185
06-09-2018 14.265
05-09-2018 14.17
04-09-2018 14.25
03-09-2018 14.525
PM MEAN AM Gold
Date(Fix.) ($/OZ)
Average 1199.20
28-09-2018 1183.5
27-09-2018 1196
26-09-2018 1198.8
25-09-2018 1199.45
24-09-2018 1198.75
21-09-2018 1207.6
20-09-2018 1203
19-09-2018 1203
18-09-2018 1199.4
17-09-2018 1196.8
14-09-2018 1206.2
13-09-2018 1206.65
12-09-2018 1197.8
11-09-2018 1194
10-09-2018 1195.8
07-09-2018 1200.75
06-09-2018 1204.3
05-09-2018 1194.7
04-09-2018 1195.75
03-09-2018 1201.7
Date(Fix.) ($/OZ)
Average 1198.84
28-09-2018 1185.375
27-09-2018 1190.7
26-09-2018 1196.525
25-09-2018 1200.675
24-09-2018 1200.75
21-09-2018 1203.15
20-09-2018 1205.675
19-09-2018 1203.15
18-09-2018 1199.8
17-09-2018 1199.35
14-09-2018 1204.075
13-09-2018 1208.225
12-09-2018 1196.7
11-09-2018 1191.925
10-09-2018 1196.2
07-09-2018 1199.825
06-09-2018 1204.725
05-09-2018 1195.7
04-09-2018 1193.3
03-09-2018 1200.875
Date(Fix.) ($/OZ)
Average 1198.47
28-09-2018 1187.25
27-09-2018 1185.4
26-09-2018 1194.25
25-09-2018 1201.9
24-09-2018 1202.75
21-09-2018 1198.7
20-09-2018 1208.35
19-09-2018 1203.3
18-09-2018 1200.2
17-09-2018 1201.9
14-09-2018 1201.95
13-09-2018 1209.8
12-09-2018 1195.6
11-09-2018 1189.85
10-09-2018 1196.6
07-09-2018 1198.9
06-09-2018 1205.15
05-09-2018 1196.7
04-09-2018 1190.85
03-09-2018 1200.05
Lead
Date(Fix.) ($/MT)
Average 2028.23
28-09-2018 2002
27-09-2018 1975
26-09-2018 1996.5
25-09-2018 2018
24-09-2018 2029
21-09-2018 1995.5
20-09-2018 2003
19-09-2018 2025
18-09-2018 2046
17-09-2018 2040
14-09-2018 2050
13-09-2018 2042
12-09-2018 1982
11-09-2018 1970
10-09-2018 2056
07-09-2018 2036.5
06-09-2018 2044
05-09-2018 2067
04-09-2018 2086
03-09-2018 2101
Zinc
Date(Fix.) ($/MT)
Average 2433.20
28-09-2018 2573
27-09-2018 2552
26-09-2018 2546
25-09-2018 2526.5
24-09-2018 2531
21-09-2018 2441
20-09-2018 2436
19-09-2018 2399
18-09-2018 2347
17-09-2018 2287
14-09-2018 2327.5
13-09-2018 2369
12-09-2018 2355
11-09-2018 2338.5
10-09-2018 2406
07-09-2018 2412
06-09-2018 2470.5
05-09-2018 2436.5
04-09-2018 2435.5
03-09-2018 2475
Tin
Date(Fix.) ($/MT)
Average 18998.75
28-09-2018 18950
27-09-2018 19020
26-09-2018 18925
25-09-2018 18975
24-09-2018 18985
21-09-2018 19100
20-09-2018 19050
19-09-2018 19100
18-09-2018 19030
17-09-2018 18960
14-09-2018 19150
13-09-2018 19060
12-09-2018 18875
11-09-2018 19070
10-09-2018 19075
07-09-2018 19110
06-09-2018 18875
05-09-2018 18925
04-09-2018 18750
03-09-2018 18990
Nickel
Date(Fix.) ($/MT)
Average 12527.25
28-09-2018 12480
27-09-2018 12620
26-09-2018 12895
25-09-2018 12845
24-09-2018 12980
21-09-2018 12955
20-09-2018 12530
19-09-2018 12470
18-09-2018 12320
17-09-2018 12235
14-09-2018 12515
13-09-2018 12615
12-09-2018 12285
11-09-2018 12255
10-09-2018 12205
07-09-2018 12290
06-09-2018 12490
05-09-2018 12415
04-09-2018 12475
03-09-2018 12670
Cobalt
Date(Fix.) ($/MT)
Average 62525.00
28-09-2018 62000
27-09-2018 62000
26-09-2018 62000
25-09-2018 62000
24-09-2018 62000
21-09-2018 62000
20-09-2018 60000
19-09-2018 62750
18-09-2018 62750
17-09-2018 62750
14-09-2018 62750
13-09-2018 62750
12-09-2018 62750
11-09-2018 61750
10-09-2018 61750
07-09-2018 62500
06-09-2018 62500
05-09-2018 64500
04-09-2018 64500
03-09-2018 64500