Monthly Metal Review

Overview

The contraction in global growth unleashed by the spectacular collapse of the credit bubble during Q3’08 gathered pace towards the end of the year. With the banking system braced for a new wave of write offs in 2009 and a combination of a shortage of credit, declining asset values and the growing threat of unemployment all weighing on consumer confidence, production, investment and consumption are all being hammered. Particularly worrying is the synchronicity of the downturn: Globalisation will ensure that no regional economy will emerge unscathed. In China, although Chinese GDP Growth slumped to a seven-year low in Q4’08, monetary money supply and credit did rebound. Lending growth rose 18.8% while the M2 measure of money supply rose 3% to 17.8%. These data suggest that the Chinese government’s current expansionary policy seems to have a positive impact on credit in the country, and this in turn is expected to be supportive of the economy. In the Eurozone, investor confidence bounced back, thanks to the ECB’s decision to slash interest rates by 50 basis points, to a record low of 2% together with the new German €50 billion fiscal stimulus package. The latter is of particular relevance for metals’ demand as €18 billion will be spent on investment, mainly in infrastructure. However, the UK economy is still dire with GDP contracting by a further 1.5% during Q4, its worst performance in three decades. The decline was wide-ranging, with construction, services and manufacturing all hit hard. In the US, the unemployment rate surged above 7% in December while the US car and light vehicle production fell by 20% year on year in 2008. Housing starts were down 45% in December from a year earlier and at their lowest level since 1959. In such a hostile environment, retail sales have been declining by 10% in December. In any major downturn, production cuts tend to lag behind the drop-off in demand. And the latter has been so severe that despite substantial production cuts, markets have moved into heavy oversupply. The key issue for a sustained recovery in prices remains the timing of an upturn in global economic growth. Government stimulus packages are expected to flow through to demand in the second half of the year, although no strong recovery is to be expected until the end of 2009, at the earliest. The fundamentals of physical supply and demand of the LME-traded commodities will therefore play a much greater role in determining their price trajectory than for several years.

Daily Prices

January 2009

Copper
Date(Fix.) ($/MT)
Average 3220.69
30-01-2009 3106
29-01-2009 3125.5
28-01-2009 3295
27-01-2009 3330.5
26-01-2009 3281
23-01-2009 3050.5
22-01-2009 3155
21-01-2009 3211
20-01-2009 3275.5
19-01-2009 3321
16-01-2009 3343
15-01-2009 3210.5
14-01-2009 3274
13-01-2009 3139
12-01-2009 3171.5
09-01-2009 3280
08-01-2009 3170.5
07-01-2009 3390.5
06-01-2009 3332
05-01-2009 3101.5
02-01-2009 3071
Silver
Date(Fix.) ($/OZ)
Average 11.29
30-01-2009 12.51
29-01-2009 11.74
28-01-2009 11.98
27-01-2009 11.91
26-01-2009 12.1
23-01-2009 11.46
22-01-2009 11.32
21-01-2009 11.34
20-01-2009 11.32
19-01-2009 11.16
16-01-2009 10.78
15-01-2009 10.51
14-01-2009 10.77
13-01-2009 10.62
12-01-2009 11.09
09-01-2009 11.22
08-01-2009 10.88
07-01-2009 11.41
06-01-2009 10.85
05-01-2009 11.07
02-01-2009 11.08
PM MEAN AM Gold
Date(Fix.) ($/OZ)
Average -
30-01-2009 -
29-01-2009 -
28-01-2009 -
27-01-2009 -
26-01-2009 -
23-01-2009 -
22-01-2009 -
21-01-2009 -
20-01-2009 -
19-01-2009 -
16-01-2009 -
15-01-2009 -
14-01-2009 -
13-01-2009 -
12-01-2009 -
09-01-2009 -
08-01-2009 -
07-01-2009 -
06-01-2009 -
05-01-2009 -
02-01-2009 -
Date(Fix.) ($/OZ)
Average -
30-01-2009 -
29-01-2009 -
28-01-2009 -
27-01-2009 -
26-01-2009 -
23-01-2009 -
22-01-2009 -
21-01-2009 -
20-01-2009 -
19-01-2009 -
16-01-2009 -
15-01-2009 -
14-01-2009 -
13-01-2009 -
12-01-2009 -
09-01-2009 -
08-01-2009 -
07-01-2009 -
06-01-2009 -
05-01-2009 -
02-01-2009 -
Date(Fix.) ($/OZ)
Average 858.68
30-01-2009 919.5
29-01-2009 892.25
28-01-2009 895.25
27-01-2009 897.5
26-01-2009 910.25
23-01-2009 875.5
22-01-2009 860
21-01-2009 849.25
20-01-2009 853.25
19-01-2009 833
16-01-2009 833.75
15-01-2009 810
14-01-2009 821.5
13-01-2009 826.5
12-01-2009 827
09-01-2009 847.25
08-01-2009 855.75
07-01-2009 848.5
06-01-2009 848.25
05-01-2009 853.5
02-01-2009 874.5
Lead
Date(Fix.) ($/MT)
Average 1132.76
30-01-2009 1152
29-01-2009 1145
28-01-2009 1160
27-01-2009 1150
26-01-2009 1153
23-01-2009 1075
22-01-2009 1105.5
21-01-2009 1120.5
20-01-2009 1145
19-01-2009 1131
16-01-2009 1162
15-01-2009 1130.5
14-01-2009 1136
13-01-2009 1080
12-01-2009 1150
09-01-2009 1185
08-01-2009 1145.5
07-01-2009 1177
06-01-2009 1165
05-01-2009 1079.5
02-01-2009 1040.5
Zinc
Date(Fix.) ($/MT)
Average 1187.40
30-01-2009 1077
29-01-2009 1078
28-01-2009 1121
27-01-2009 1131
26-01-2009 1140.5
23-01-2009 1108
22-01-2009 1114
21-01-2009 1171.5
20-01-2009 1197.5
19-01-2009 1205.5
16-01-2009 1245.5
15-01-2009 1240.5
14-01-2009 1235.5
13-01-2009 1181.5
12-01-2009 1213
09-01-2009 1220
08-01-2009 1230
07-01-2009 1288.5
06-01-2009 1280.5
05-01-2009 1236
02-01-2009 1220.5
Tin
Date(Fix.) ($/MT)
Average 11372.86
30-01-2009 10870
29-01-2009 10900
28-01-2009 11475
27-01-2009 11750
26-01-2009 12035
23-01-2009 11055
22-01-2009 11410
21-01-2009 11350
20-01-2009 10830
19-01-2009 10805
16-01-2009 11300
15-01-2009 11005
14-01-2009 11465
13-01-2009 11305
12-01-2009 11600
09-01-2009 11350
08-01-2009 11250
07-01-2009 11925
06-01-2009 12200
05-01-2009 11400
02-01-2009 11550