Monthly Metal Review

Overview (October 2018)

As the US prepares itself for its mid-term election that should set the tone of Trump’s policies during rest of his tenure, the geo-political uncertainties continue to reign over the world economy. Brent crude oil prices at $86 per barrel due to sanctions against Iran and the falling levels of US treasury and German bund yields are contributing to bearish sentiments all across the globe, especially in developing countries. In addition, the reaction of major world powers against killing of a Saudi journalist, US-China trade war and the almost paralyzed pace of Brexit negotiations have added further confusion to the state of global economic recovery. Despite all the potential issues, as mentioned above, we should remind ourselves that the global economy is still growing, the commodity markets’ fundamentals remain generally strong and look set to tighten in 2019. We started off this year expecting just a pause in the 2016-2017 rally, but the pause has dragged on. The main change has been the prolonged trade dispute, if common sense prevails and new agreements are reached then confidence could soon return to the commodities. One area of cheer is that China has taken some steps to relieve credit tightness that the private sector is suffering – as this is one of the reasons we often hear as to why businesses activity in China is sluggish, this could be a constructive step in the right direction. The US unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since De-cember 1969 to 3.7%. Various sections of economists are predict-ing a further decline in the joblessness rate in next 12 months, thereby strengthening the possibility that the US Federal Reserve will keep raising the interest rates as more number of US workers increase their spending. According to a recent data from the US department of Labor, manufacturing jobs continued to increase in September despite increase in cost of imported raw materials in the US due to trade war with China. Thus the escalation in trade war seems to have no effect on the US economy as far as hiring num-bers are concerned. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reduced its outlook on the global economy to a 3.7% growth rate or this year and the next, down 0.2% from its earlier forecast in July. The fund expects US economy to grow at the rate of 2.9% this year but expects a decline to 2.5% in the next year due to escalating trade war with China. With the US economy growing stronger and other advanced economies doing better than their long-term sustainable rates, the short term attention of economists is shifting towards emerging economies. According to IMF, most of the developing world is currently facing an increase in burden of foreign currency denominat-ed debt. China’s policymakers are still wondering if they accept the weaker outlook against the trade war or stimulate credit growth by risking an increase in debt level which is already alarming. However, an analysis by Bloomberg suggested that China will still be the top contributor to global GDP growth by a large margin in the near term. China's share of global GDP growth is expected to rise from 27.2 per cent to 28.4 per cent by 2023. Meanwhile, India's share of global GDP growth is expected to rise from 13 per cent to almost 16 per cent -- a jump of three percentage points. In the fourth spot will be Indonesia with an expected 3.7 per cent share in 2023. The top five will be rounded out by Brazil. IMF kept its forecast for growth in the Chinese economy un-changed at 6.6% this year but cut down its next year forecast to 6.2% next year. This was estimated assuming status quo in the intentions of President Trump. However, we are also hearing counter arguments from some quarters that Trump administration may be less inclined to escalate the trade war with same intensity if US companies show signs of stress, which some are starting to do. The Dow Jones In-dustrial Average at 24,860, is close to where it started the year, 24,824, and having been as high as 26,951.81, has already fallen 7.8% from its high. What is more, as many of Trump’s policies are set to hurt US companies, he may well have to do some ‘U’-turns.

Daily Prices

November 2018

Copper
Date(Fix.) ($/MT)
Average 6155.59
15-11-2018 6188
14-11-2018 6106
13-11-2018 6130
12-11-2018 6083.5
09-11-2018 6088
08-11-2018 6137
07-11-2018 6210
06-11-2018 6205
05-11-2018 6239
02-11-2018 6255
01-11-2018 6070
Silver
Date(Fix.) ($/OZ)
Average 14.41
15-11-2018 14.13
14-11-2018 13.97
13-11-2018 14.02
12-11-2018 14.16
09-11-2018 14.34
08-11-2018 14.49
07-11-2018 14.67
06-11-2018 14.7
05-11-2018 14.735
02-11-2018 14.82
01-11-2018 14.45
PM MEAN AM Gold
Date(Fix.) ($/OZ)
Average 1219.95
15-11-2018 1210.6
14-11-2018 1201.45
13-11-2018 1197.55
12-11-2018 1207.05
09-11-2018 1219.05
08-11-2018 1223.45
07-11-2018 1235.05
06-11-2018 1234.85
05-11-2018 1231.6
02-11-2018 1235.5
01-11-2018 1223.25
Date(Fix.) ($/OZ)
Average 1224.31
15-11-2018 1211.225
14-11-2018 1202.35
13-11-2018 1199.825
12-11-2018 1206.3
09-11-2018 1215.225
08-11-2018 1223.8
07-11-2018 1232.5
06-11-2018 1233.225
05-11-2018 1231.925
02-11-2018 1233.8
01-11-2018 1277.2
Date(Fix.) ($/OZ)
Average 1228.67
15-11-2018 1211.85
14-11-2018 1203.25
13-11-2018 1202.1
12-11-2018 1205.55
09-11-2018 1211.4
08-11-2018 1224.15
07-11-2018 1229.95
06-11-2018 1231.6
05-11-2018 1232.25
02-11-2018 1232.1
01-11-2018 1331.15
Lead
Date(Fix.) ($/MT)
Average 1933.55
15-11-2018 1943
14-11-2018 1918.5
13-11-2018 1908
12-11-2018 1910
09-11-2018 1957
08-11-2018 1947
07-11-2018 1899
06-11-2018 1910
05-11-2018 1948.5
02-11-2018 1995
01-11-2018 1933
Zinc
Date(Fix.) ($/MT)
Average 2572.00
15-11-2018 2655
14-11-2018 2542
13-11-2018 2587
12-11-2018 2548
09-11-2018 2556
08-11-2018 2521.5
07-11-2018 2522
06-11-2018 2572
05-11-2018 2550
02-11-2018 2653.5
01-11-2018 2585
Tin
Date(Fix.) ($/MT)
Average 19220.00
15-11-2018 19475
14-11-2018 19345
13-11-2018 19300
12-11-2018 19330
09-11-2018 19310
08-11-2018 19200
07-11-2018 19050
06-11-2018 19050
05-11-2018 19080
02-11-2018 19175
01-11-2018 19105
Nickel
Date(Fix.) ($/MT)
Average 11546.82
15-11-2018 11340
14-11-2018 11225
13-11-2018 11370
12-11-2018 11290
09-11-2018 11470
08-11-2018 11615
07-11-2018 11670
06-11-2018 11820
05-11-2018 11680
02-11-2018 11980
01-11-2018 11555
Cobalt
Date(Fix.) ($/MT)
Average 51295.45
15-11-2018 55000
14-11-2018 55000
13-11-2018 51000
12-11-2018 50250
09-11-2018 51000
08-11-2018 54500
07-11-2018 52500
06-11-2018 50500
05-11-2018 46750
02-11-2018 45000
01-11-2018 52750